New product design as well as design revision to remedy defects is complicated by an inability to precisely predict product performance. Designers often find that they are confident about the performance of some design alternatives and uncertain about others. Similarly, alternative design changes may differ substantially in uncertainty, potential impact, and cost. This paper describes a method for including the effects of uncertainty in the evaluation of economic benefits of various design change options. The results indicate that the most profitable change option sequence depends not only on relative costs but also on the relative degree of uncertainty and on the magnitude of the potential design defects. The method demonstrates how design change alternatives can be compared using the engineering design of a beam. Finally, the validity of some common engineering change heuristics are discussed relative to their associated, quantitatively determined limits.

Issue Section:
Technical Papers
Keywords:
design engineering, sequences, heuristic programming
Topics:
Design
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