This paper presents a one-dimensional steady-state model of heat and water vapor transport just beneath an ablating concrete surface. In the model an evaporation front separates a dry porous region through which water vapor flows to the ablation front from a semi-infinite region that is partially wet with evaporable water. The predicted water vapor pressures at the evaporation front are quite high and could conceivably cause the concrete to spall. The model is quantitatively compatible with spallation events observed during tests involving the pouring of molten steel onto concrete and is capable of explaining the disparate results obtained in two rather extensive test series on the penetration of induction heated metallic pools into concrete.

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