This paper relates to the penetration of large, massive targets by long rods where target penetration is accompanied by rod erosion. A principal criticism of previous analyses of this problem by the present authors was the use of post test measurements to furnish input information for calculations. Thus, the analyses had no truly predictive capability. In particular, the profile hole diameter of the experimental target crater was previously employed as a measure of mushroom strain at the penetrator tip. Because this strain value has a significant effect on calculated penetration depths, it is very important to be able to predict it rather than measure it. In this paper a recent result from the analysis of the initial transient penetration phase is used to estimate mushroom strain. This result is incorporated into the previous steady-state analysis to make it predictive. This new theory is the basis for calculations that are compared with previously published experimental results. The degree of agreement is really quite good for a procedure in which there are no adjustable parameters. In any case, the new computational method is certainly a substantial improvement over the previous reliance on post impact information.

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